Hi everyone!
Discouraging news coming out of Egypt. As January 25th rapidly approaches--the anniversary date for the start of the protests in Tahrir Square--it seems that the youth movement responsible for initiating the downfall of the Mubarak regime is losing favor with the average Egyptian. According to an article in today's Wall Street Journal, many have simply grown weary of the protests and long for a return to some semblance of normal life.
A dangerous sense of ennui seems to be settling in. I say dangerous because if the Egyptian everyman and woman decides to pack it in and go along with the ruling military council (SCAF) out of a feeling that nothing is ever going to change so why bother, the momentum built up over the past twelve months will truly have been naught. The military will take encouragement from this and it then becomes increasingly likely that the longed-for and promised transition from military to civilian rule, currently scheduled to take place at the end of June, will be at great if not greater risk.
To mark the anniversary, a protest 'festival' of sorts has been planned for Tahrir Square, comprising of musical performances, lectures, and other activities designed to commemorate the protest movement and reignite the flame against the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Over the weekend, however, the Muslim Brotherhood (who along with the hardline Salafist Party are set to assume control of more than 45% of the seats in the new parliament which is set to meet for the first time on January 23rd) announced that they would not be participating in any renewed protests against the interim military rulers. Without the Muslim Brotherhood's blessing, it is doubtful turnout for the protest will be as large as it otherwise might have been.
Another blow to the youth protest movement was the announcement that Mohamed ElBaradei has withdrawn from the upcoming presidential race. In his official statement to the press, Mr. ElBaradei said: "The regime did not fall yet. My conscience would not allow me to run for the presidency or any position without having a real democratic system that implements the real concepts of democracy, not only its framework."
Mr. ElBaradei's reasons for withdrawing are admirable. Despite recent parliamentary elections, Egypt still has a long way to go before it can unequivocally be said to have transitioned into a full-fledged democracy. As long as the interim military council remains even nominally in control, the country is still technically a police state.
However, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate is perhaps Egypt's most qualified presidential candidate. His experience as the former secretary-general of the International Atomic Agency propelled him into the international spotlight. He is a known commodity as well as being familiar with the fundamentals of democratic government. Who else in Egypt is similarly positioned?
It seems that the fervid youthful revolutionary zeal of a year ago is fading in the face of continued repression and lack of true identifiable reform. The Egyptian economy is in the toilet, crippled by a lack of tourist dollars upon which the country could always depend as well as further uncertainty about the next six months. The youth movement may also be viewed by some older Egyptians as promoting anarchy. To counter this, the movement has initiated a public relations campaign called "Protect the Egyptian Military" that seeks to promote the efforts of the average policeman/woman on the street in contrast to the perceived corruption of their commanding officers.
It is of course understandable and perhaps inevitable that a certain level of 'protest fatigue' is to be expected. A year is an awfully long time to live in a state of economic and political uncertainty. Let's see what happens when the new democratically-elected parliament sits for the first time on the 23rd. Here's hoping the flame of Tahrir Square isn't allowed to die out.
Ciao.
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