Hi everyone!
So despite the gloom and doom of some of my previous posts having to do with the ongoing democracy movement in the Arab World, there is indeed progress to report.
Yesterday was a big day in Syria, one might even go so far as to call it a turning point. We all know that the Arab League observation mission has been rather a bust. Hundreds of protesters were killed while the observer delegation kind of bumbled around the country, seeing glimpses of unrest and the government crackdown while expressing frustration that Assad's regime wasn't honoring the agreement that put the observers on the ground in the first place.
So what did the Arab League do yesterday? They unexpectedly issued a peace proposal demanding that Assad step down and begin negotiating with the opposition within two weeks. According to reports, this proposal is modeled after a similar agreement signed by President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen, who finally left his country yesterday en route to the U.S. for further medical treatments for the burns he sustained last June in an attempt on his life. What may differentiate these two proposals, however, is that the Yemeni agreement offered Mr Saleh immunity from prosecution for war-related crimes if he agreed to step down. The Syrian proposal offers no such incentive for Assad and his cronies.
No one expects Assad to accept the proposal. He has unequivocally declared that he'll more-or-less die 'defending' his country. The reason I describe the Arab League proposal as progress is that it's the most sharply-worded response to the continued violence in Syria that we've heard from the Arab World. According to Reuters, Qatar's foreign minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, said "We ask that the Syrian regime leave and hand over power. We are with the Syrian people, with their will and with their aspirations." Again, change in Syria is not going to happen overnight. But with this declaration from the Arab League--really the only force that has much street cred on the Arab Street--it shows that with the exception of Iran and perhaps Russia, Assad has very few allies in his corner. He'll go down fighting, but eventually he's going to have to go down.
But with the end of the Assad dynasty, who's going to replace them? Chances are, we'll be faced with a similar situation to that which is currently roiling Libya. Over there in North Africa, the opposition was a rather rag-tag group of rebels who were united only in their desire to see Qaddafi overthrown. Now that he's dead and gone, the country is on the precipice of renewed chaos because none of these rebel factions can unite behind one course of action. The same can be said of Syria. The Free Syrian Army, a militia comprised of deserters seems to be the most direct opposition Assad faces, at least in terms of boots on the ground. There is also the Syrian National Council, a more politically-oriented opposition group that when all is said and done doesn't wield all that much influence.
So what to do? Wait and see, I guess. Along with the peace proposal, the Arab League announced that the observer mission would continue, citing that some progress has been made. I have my doubts but I'd rather them stay because as ineffective as the mission might appear, they are a collective set of eyes in Assad's backyard. With a peace proposal on the table, the Arab League observers might finally have a bit more clout.
The ball is in your court, Mr. Assad. Act wisely.
Ciao.
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