Amir Mirzaei Hekmati--a Pawn on the Chessboard of U.S.-Iranian Relations

Hi everyone!

Yesterday, Iran sentenced and condemned to death a 28 year-old American citizen for spying for the CIA and being an "enemy of Islam." Amir Mirzaei Hekmati was apparently visiting family in Iran last fall when he was arrested. News of his arrest only came to light in December when a videotaped "confession" was broadcast on Iranian television. According to Iran, Mr. Hekmati admitted to being sent to Iran by the CIA to spy on the Intelligence Ministry. He has twenty days to register an appeal against the ruling.

This latest bit of madness marks the nadir in 33 years of contentious U.S.-Iran relations. It is not, however, the first time in recent history that Iran has detained and accused American citizens of espionage. Just last September it finally released two American hikers who had been accused of illegally entering Iran with the negative intent. In 2009, an Iranian-American journalist was also arrested but later freed after an international diplomatic uproar. Given this history, it is highly likely that Mr. Hekmati's arrest and sentencing is little more than Iran playing its usual game of brinkmanship as a means of lessening scrutiny on its suspected nuclear weapons program. In this most recent case, however, there is a twist.

Prior to visiting Iran, Mr. Hekmati acquired an Iranian passport as a means of easing his ability to travel to the country. He is, therefore, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen. The problem though is that Iran does not recognize dual citizenship. Therefore, in the eyes of Iran's judicial system, Mr. Hekmati is first and foremost a citizen of Iran and as such is to held accountable to Iranian law which would uphold the death sentence. Another possible strike against Mr. Hekmati is that from 2001 to 2005, he served in the U.S. Marine Corps and had active duty in Iraq as well as--though the Obama administration will not confirm this--in Afghanistan. From Iran's perspective then, this makes Mr. Hekmati somewhat of a jewel in their crown. They are less likely to suspend his sentence or to give in to international calls for his release.

Of course, it would serve absolutely no benefit to Iran were they to go ahead and execute him. Iran is increasingly a pariah state on the world stage, with very few allies outside of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and a small handful of Latin American autocrats propping it up. With sanctions crippling the Iranian economy and increasing threats of an embargo against Iranian oil exports, Iran has very few credible bargaining chips left to it. A threat to close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping last week failed to materialize because such an action would have done more damage to the Iranian people than the foreign economies it was meant to target. It would seem then that Iran is grasping for anything that they feel boosts their position at the negotiating table.

But while Iran claims a desire to reopen talks with the U.S. and the West regarding the true motives behind its development of nuclear capabilities, it contradicts itself by announcing this week that it had begun to enrich uranium at a second location. The new site is reported to be deeply entrenched beneath a military installation, thus protecting it from U.S. or (more likely) an Israeli missile strike. So it's not really clear what Iran is playing at...but then Iran has always been rather opaque.

I would like to believe Mr. Hekmati is merely being used as pawn on the ever-shifting but deeply entrenched chessboard of US-Iranian relations, and that when the West refuses to make any concessions for his release, Iran will cede defeat and release him. This is just going on past history. But there is always the possibility for surprise. If Iran truly feels it is being backed into a corner and that it has no other option other than to lash out, there is a chance that Mr. Hekmati may not be saved. How this would serve Iranian aims in the long run is anyone's guess. But then, that seems to be what Ahmedinajad does best--keeping the world guessing and holding it off at arms'-length while it continues to "secretly" enrich its uranium.

Ciao.