One Year On: The Elusive Myth of Democracy in the Arab World

Hi everyone!

After a year now of violent unrest and protests--with the exception of Tunisia--how much has really changed?

Despite the overthrow of the Mubarak regime in Egypt and recent parliamentary elections that more-or-less went off without a hitch, the ruling military council (which was originally intended as a transitional thing) is still pretty firmly entrenched while protests continue, the economy free-falls, and the country is rife with rumors about an increase in the price of fuel beyond the affordability of the average Egyptian citizen, 40 percent of whom live beneath the poverty line.

Over in Syria, the Arab League observer mission is in shambles with less than a week to go as dozens of protesters continue to be killed, wounded, or disappeared. Bashar announced an amnesty yesterday for so-called criminals of the protest movement, meaning army deserters and any protester caught in possession of illegal arms or violation of laws governing peaceful protests. This is the fourth such amnesty, following similar announcements in May, June, and November. No one on the ground takes this seriously.

King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa of Bahrain paid further lip service to Bahraini protesters by saying that his government will be held under greater scrutiny by Parliament; however, Parliament will still be unable to dismiss government officials--usually members of the royal family or their sycophants--it deems unworthy of holding government office. This, protesters say, falls far short of what they are actually demanding--the institution of a full constitutional monarchy.

Meanwhile, in Tunisia, there were reports last week that there has been a five-fold increase in the number of self-immolations timed for the one-year anniversary of the birth of democracy and the self-immolation of Mohammed Bouazizi, the young street vendor whose death ignited the Arab world. According to the BBC, these are mostly poor unemployed young men who have become disillusioned by the continued lack of jobs and government aid despite the installation of democracy.

So I repeat my question: How much has really changed?

I realize of course that in the grand scheme of history, one year is a relatively short period of time. And taking this into consideration, the sweep of the Arab Spring remains impressive. But when all is said and done, what is the true extent of these improvements? For the first time in decades, Egyptians were allowed to vote in free and fair parliamentary elections, though it remains to be seen whether the ruling military council will actually allow the new parliament to draft a constitution and become a truly democratic and functioning government. If the generals don't step down, more bloodshed on the streets of Cairo is pretty much a guarantee. Syria is a mess any way you look at it and heading toward a bloody sectarian war, if it isn't there already. How is this an improvement? And as evidenced by the continued public suicides of unemployed Tunisians, have changes in the government really translated yet to reforms on the street?

At this point, I suppose, there aren't any real answers. We can only wait, watch, and see. Still, it would be a shame if for the millions of people across the Arab world, democracy remains little more than an elusive myth.

Ciao.

Contradiction and Continued Suppression in the Middle East

Hi everyone!

While the United States prepares for its first Republican Party caucus in Iowa tomorrow – a reflection of the democratic processes upon which the country was founded but doesn’t always follow through on – turmoil in the Middle East continues.

In Syria, the Arab League delegation continues its lame duck observer mission while more and more criticism is launched at it from within the Arab world. On Sunday, the 88-member Arab Parliament, which has no real power over the Arab League beyond serving as a voice of reason, issued a statement calling for the end of the observer mission. Rather than preventing or ending the violent suppression of Syrian protesters, if anything, the observers have inadvertently increased the intensity of the government crackdown that has killed more than 5,000 people since the start of the uprising last March and 150 reported killed since the Arab League delegation arrived last Tuesday. The suspicion is that the only reason Assad agreed to the observer mission is so he can buy more time before more stringent outside sanctions are levied against his government.

Meanwhile, in Egypt, the process of democratic oppression continued yesterday as the military-led government further justified its raids on the offices of nonprofit organizations in Cairo.  Faiza Abu El-Naga, civilian cabinet official in charge of international relations, claimed that the raids were part of an ongoing investigation into the corruption of the Mubarak regime. The groups, Ms. Naga alleges, received funding without the knowledge of the Egyptian government, which directly—according to Ms. Naga—undermines it. Whether or not anyone really believes this is anyone’s guess, but the fear is that further raids on any organization that acts independently for the betterment of human rights in Egypt will soon be stifled altogether.

Over in Bahrain, violence overwhelmed the funeral of a 15-year-old protester who was killed on Saturday by a tear gas canister—fired by government troops—that reportedly struck him in the chest.  It’s no surprise that Bahrain’s Interior Ministry has denied these accusations. I continue to find it appalling that the U.S. continues to allow such injustice to go on in Bahrain for the sake of not offending or jeopardizing relations with Saudi Arabia. This is just another example of the U.S.’s contradictory approach to Middle Eastern politics. It is all very well for the Obama administration to support the democracy movement in Libya, for example, whose former leader was a decades-long thorn in the U.S.’s side. But because the U.S. relies on the Saudis to support and promote its Middle Eastern foreign policy, it will not publicly voice support for the Bahraini protesters out of fear of disturbing U.S.-Saudi relations. While the U.S. did criticize Saudi Arabia for sending in troops to put down the initial Bahraini protests last spring, the criticism felt half-hearted and done more from a sense of obligation than genuine concern.

At any rate, it is clear that what began a year ago and evolved into the Arab Spring is still ongoing. I think 2012 will continue to bring us tremendous change, not just in the Middle East but in Russia, Europe, and the United States as well. Whether that change is for the good or for the worse, is still anyone’s guess. Regardless, I’ll be watching closely.

Ciao.

The Arab Spring, Part Two

Hi everyone!

Well, yesterday there was yet another round of protests in Egypt and again the military did not hesitate to use violence in an effort to stem the tide. A peaceful sit-in outside the Egyptian cabinet building turned deadly as members of the military threw rocks and file cabinets down upon the protestors from the roof of a government building.

Polling stations across the country were also scenes of violence between civilians and the army as the second stage of the election was held for positions in the new parliament. The military--once all-powerful---is running scared. Once again, votes coming in confirm the fact that the new Egyptian Parliament is taking on an Islamic bent with the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis earning the majority share of votes, an identical outcome as was seen in round one. The military is secular. The prominence of the Islamists in the new government basically cancels out the influence of the military...at least this would be the case if the military backed down and let true democracy take its course. Unfortunately, it seems, the military has no such plans.

Protests yesterday were not confined to just Egypt. Syria was wracked by violence yet again with reports, according to the New York Times, of at least 17 people killed by government troops. A recent United Nations count puts the total Syrian death toll since the protests began there at 5,000.

Also there's a brouhaha brewing in the southwestern Chinese province of Wufan where the local population have basically taken over a village to protest a local government land-grab. It seems the Chinese government buys land at cut-rate prices that should be owned by the locals and then sells the same land to government-sponsored building companies for a considerable profit, completely shutting the villagers out of the deal. The current protest started after one of the village spokesmen was mysteriously taken into custody by the police and died. The police claim the man had a heart attack but family who came to identify the body said it betrayed signs of torture. The body of course has not been released back to the family while an escalating military presence on the outskirts of the village harbors the potential for rather unpleasant things to come.

Time magazine in its annual end-of-the-year 'Person of the Year' issue awarded this year's honor to the Protestor. It does indeed seem that 2011 is the year of the protest, of the long-oppressed silent majority finding their collective voice and using it to inspire change. The videos and Tweets coming out of places like Cairo, Homs, Manama, Moscow and Wufan frighten and inspire at the same time. My heart goes out to everyone--young and old--who are simply pursuing the basic human rights of democratic representation and the chance to create a better life for their young and loved ones. But, as I've said before and will undoubtedly say again, those in positions of power here in the West need to respect and support whatever results this democratic process brings into being, regardless of whether these new governments are secular or (in the Middle East) Islamic. That's what happens in a democracy--the people elect their leaders without outside pressure or influence. Sure, it may make many of us uncomfortable to see Egypt turn into another theocracy (not that this will happen) like Iran, but who are we to tell the people otherwise? Unless we live in these countries, or are out there occupying Tahrir Square, we don't have a voice. We can only observe and pass the message along.

Ciao.

QUESTION OF THE DAY: "Do you believe Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will ever cede control, or will he go down fighting like Qadaffi?"