Brother vs Brother?: A Generation Gap in the Muslim Brotherhood

Hi everyone!

I came across an interesting article in today's New York Times Magazine about a gentleman named Mohamed Beltagy. Mr. Beltagy is a doctor and a popular leader within the Muslim Brotherhood, which incidentally won 40 percent of the seats in the new Egyptian parliament.

The article discusses the conflict brewing within the Brotherhood between its moderate members--like Mr. Beltagy--and the hardliners who have traditionally been the more dominant faction. Because of this, many fear that any government majority comprised of hardcore Islamists is going to result in a repressive society, a fact that would appear to contradict the democratic values upon which the Egyptian protest movement was founded. It's disappointing that the youth movement, at least from a political perspective, appears to have lost its influence. The party it backed in the recent elections barely registered with voters who turned out in droves to elect a parliament that is at least 65 percent Islamist.

While the Muslim Brotherhood came out with the majority of votes, not too far behind it are the Salafists who advocate strict religious rule...a theocracy if you will. It would appear then that there should be a modicum of overlapping values between these two political parties. But, as the article points out, there is not. In fact, although the Brotherhood claims to have abandoned its more fundamentalist leanings--at least for the sake of elections--the Salafists have hardened their more extremist stance. This poses an obvious problem for the future, let alone stability, of any Egyptian government. If the two leading parties are unable to compromise for the sake of a united and stable parliament, it just gives the military council (SCAF) further reason not to step down as promised in June. In fact, when the unofficial election results started to trickle in late last month, the military revised its position and said it would not step down and would in fact take control of the writing of the Constitution.

But there are other, perhaps more immediate concerns as well...or if not concerns per se, then questions. Where, for example, has the Brotherhood been in the most recent bout of protests? A year ago, the Brotherhood was a dominant presence in Tahrir Square, serving--according to New York Times writer Robert Worth--as a sort of makeshift security apparatus, frisking anyone who came to the protests before allowing them into the square, etc. This is no longer the case. In fact, the Brotherhood has consciously put distance between itself and the protests, at least from an external perspective. The reasons for this are about murky as the politics.

Many believe that most of the top dogs in the Brotherhood (who are used to a strong military involvement in government)  are not necessarily as adamant about getting rid of the military as are the younger generation, or for example, Mr. Beltagy. The military is still viewed by many older Egyptians as a stabilizing presence without which many fear anarchy. This may just be a case of better the devil you know...

But it does give cause for concern. The Brotherhood appears to be contradicting itself. In response to the most recent spate of violence that left at least 10 dead and hundreds more wounded, the Brotherhood spoke out against the violence--which it conceded was committed at the hands of the military--while telling protesters that their efforts would be better served by going to the polls and encouraging others to do the same. While elections are certainly an important part of the democratic process, if the military ultimately refuses to step down and widespread violence once again returns to Tahrir Square, on what side of the conflict is the Brotherhood going to find itself? After a year of dramatic change and continued uncertainty, the Egyptian public are not going to stand for a parliament--elected for the first time by the public--that sits on the fence and does nothing.

And as for that conflict within the Muslim Brotherhood between moderates like Mr. Beltagy and the traditional hardline cohort, many predict that once the Brotherhood is firmly in power, the moderates are going to be pushed out in favor of the old school...or the old madrassah, as it were. The hardline Brothers will align themselves with the hardline Salafists and you'll have a theocracy like Iran at worst, or Saudi Arabia at best, which isn't saying much.

The one-year anniversary of Tahrir Square is this Wednesday, the 25th. The new Parliament is also supposed to sit for the first time this week. Whatever happens, Egypt is definitely in the spotlight once again.

Ciao.

The Arab Spring, Part Two

Hi everyone!

Well, yesterday there was yet another round of protests in Egypt and again the military did not hesitate to use violence in an effort to stem the tide. A peaceful sit-in outside the Egyptian cabinet building turned deadly as members of the military threw rocks and file cabinets down upon the protestors from the roof of a government building.

Polling stations across the country were also scenes of violence between civilians and the army as the second stage of the election was held for positions in the new parliament. The military--once all-powerful---is running scared. Once again, votes coming in confirm the fact that the new Egyptian Parliament is taking on an Islamic bent with the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis earning the majority share of votes, an identical outcome as was seen in round one. The military is secular. The prominence of the Islamists in the new government basically cancels out the influence of the military...at least this would be the case if the military backed down and let true democracy take its course. Unfortunately, it seems, the military has no such plans.

Protests yesterday were not confined to just Egypt. Syria was wracked by violence yet again with reports, according to the New York Times, of at least 17 people killed by government troops. A recent United Nations count puts the total Syrian death toll since the protests began there at 5,000.

Also there's a brouhaha brewing in the southwestern Chinese province of Wufan where the local population have basically taken over a village to protest a local government land-grab. It seems the Chinese government buys land at cut-rate prices that should be owned by the locals and then sells the same land to government-sponsored building companies for a considerable profit, completely shutting the villagers out of the deal. The current protest started after one of the village spokesmen was mysteriously taken into custody by the police and died. The police claim the man had a heart attack but family who came to identify the body said it betrayed signs of torture. The body of course has not been released back to the family while an escalating military presence on the outskirts of the village harbors the potential for rather unpleasant things to come.

Time magazine in its annual end-of-the-year 'Person of the Year' issue awarded this year's honor to the Protestor. It does indeed seem that 2011 is the year of the protest, of the long-oppressed silent majority finding their collective voice and using it to inspire change. The videos and Tweets coming out of places like Cairo, Homs, Manama, Moscow and Wufan frighten and inspire at the same time. My heart goes out to everyone--young and old--who are simply pursuing the basic human rights of democratic representation and the chance to create a better life for their young and loved ones. But, as I've said before and will undoubtedly say again, those in positions of power here in the West need to respect and support whatever results this democratic process brings into being, regardless of whether these new governments are secular or (in the Middle East) Islamic. That's what happens in a democracy--the people elect their leaders without outside pressure or influence. Sure, it may make many of us uncomfortable to see Egypt turn into another theocracy (not that this will happen) like Iran, but who are we to tell the people otherwise? Unless we live in these countries, or are out there occupying Tahrir Square, we don't have a voice. We can only observe and pass the message along.

Ciao.

QUESTION OF THE DAY: "Do you believe Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will ever cede control, or will he go down fighting like Qadaffi?"