Hi everyone!
After a year now of violent unrest and protests--with the exception of Tunisia--how much has really changed?
Despite the overthrow of the Mubarak regime in Egypt and recent parliamentary elections that more-or-less went off without a hitch, the ruling military council (which was originally intended as a transitional thing) is still pretty firmly entrenched while protests continue, the economy free-falls, and the country is rife with rumors about an increase in the price of fuel beyond the affordability of the average Egyptian citizen, 40 percent of whom live beneath the poverty line.
Over in Syria, the Arab League observer mission is in shambles with less than a week to go as dozens of protesters continue to be killed, wounded, or disappeared. Bashar announced an amnesty yesterday for so-called criminals of the protest movement, meaning army deserters and any protester caught in possession of illegal arms or violation of laws governing peaceful protests. This is the fourth such amnesty, following similar announcements in May, June, and November. No one on the ground takes this seriously.
King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa of Bahrain paid further lip service to Bahraini protesters by saying that his government will be held under greater scrutiny by Parliament; however, Parliament will still be unable to dismiss government officials--usually members of the royal family or their sycophants--it deems unworthy of holding government office. This, protesters say, falls far short of what they are actually demanding--the institution of a full constitutional monarchy.
Meanwhile, in Tunisia, there were reports last week that there has been a five-fold increase in the number of self-immolations timed for the one-year anniversary of the birth of democracy and the self-immolation of Mohammed Bouazizi, the young street vendor whose death ignited the Arab world. According to the BBC, these are mostly poor unemployed young men who have become disillusioned by the continued lack of jobs and government aid despite the installation of democracy.
So I repeat my question: How much has really changed?
I realize of course that in the grand scheme of history, one year is a relatively short period of time. And taking this into consideration, the sweep of the Arab Spring remains impressive. But when all is said and done, what is the true extent of these improvements? For the first time in decades, Egyptians were allowed to vote in free and fair parliamentary elections, though it remains to be seen whether the ruling military council will actually allow the new parliament to draft a constitution and become a truly democratic and functioning government. If the generals don't step down, more bloodshed on the streets of Cairo is pretty much a guarantee. Syria is a mess any way you look at it and heading toward a bloody sectarian war, if it isn't there already. How is this an improvement? And as evidenced by the continued public suicides of unemployed Tunisians, have changes in the government really translated yet to reforms on the street?
At this point, I suppose, there aren't any real answers. We can only wait, watch, and see. Still, it would be a shame if for the millions of people across the Arab world, democracy remains little more than an elusive myth.
Ciao.
Showing posts with label the Arab League. Show all posts
Showing posts with label the Arab League. Show all posts
Monday, January 16, 2012
Monday, January 9, 2012
Syria and the Arab League--a Diplomatic Travesty
Hi everybody! Hope y'all had a good weekend.
Lots of interesting developments in the news today, not the least of which is the fact that the Arab League voted over the weekend to increase the number of observers in Syria from its existing 165 to 300. I'm still not sold on the effectiveness of this mission--the first of its kind from the Arab League--due to the fact that the number of people killed seems to increase with each passing day, another 15 just yesterday, despite the observers' presence. The numbers of dead keep mounting. The current estimate is already at about 6,000, which is more than the number of U.S. soldiers dead in almost ten years in Iraq.
The mission is due to wrap on January 19th, just 10 days from today, with a report on whether or not Assad's regime has complied to the Arab League mandate. As I've indicated before, I am extremely skeptical of this whole mission. I just don't see how things are going to change. Assad's brutal crackdown of the Syrian people has been going on for almost a year now. What's changed? How are the protesters being helped by the Arab League? Government forces are still killing innocent men, women, and children on the streets of Homs and Hama with an alarming hubris. The Syrian army escorts the observers, making sure to steer them clear of any hotspots. I don't know, but when that report is issued on the 19th, I'd be surprised if it offers more than a perfunctory slap on Assad's wrist. Then what happens?
What particularly irks me is the fact that because of Russia and China, the U.S. and/or NATO is not considering airstrikes like they did in Libya, which had a proven rate of success. I could be wrong but from a strategic standpoint, Syria has a helluva lot more influence in that part of the world than Libya under Qaddafi ever did...and is a much greater menace. Syria essentially rules Lebanon by proxy through Hizbullah..it's agents are reputed to have been responsible for the car bomb assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005, not to mention the fact that Damascus has served as the main base of operations for Hamas, though the latter is said to be distancing itself from the Assad administration while it seeks greater international legitimacy.
While I believe that countries should be allowed to govern themselves without the participation of occupying forces, something has to be said for at least some outside assistance when and where it's due. Nation-building doesn't work--just look at the fiasco that was (and increasingly continues to be) Iraq. But in Syria's case, from an international perspective, relying solely on the dubious word of Arab League observers (however well-intentioned), headed by a Sudanese general with a proven history of human rights abuses, is like the blind leading the blind. And once the Arab League mission ends on the 19th and the observers pack up and go home, what's to stop Mr. Assad from furthering his reign of terror?
Please, people, don't let Syria be the final word on the Arab Spring.
Ciao.
Lots of interesting developments in the news today, not the least of which is the fact that the Arab League voted over the weekend to increase the number of observers in Syria from its existing 165 to 300. I'm still not sold on the effectiveness of this mission--the first of its kind from the Arab League--due to the fact that the number of people killed seems to increase with each passing day, another 15 just yesterday, despite the observers' presence. The numbers of dead keep mounting. The current estimate is already at about 6,000, which is more than the number of U.S. soldiers dead in almost ten years in Iraq.
The mission is due to wrap on January 19th, just 10 days from today, with a report on whether or not Assad's regime has complied to the Arab League mandate. As I've indicated before, I am extremely skeptical of this whole mission. I just don't see how things are going to change. Assad's brutal crackdown of the Syrian people has been going on for almost a year now. What's changed? How are the protesters being helped by the Arab League? Government forces are still killing innocent men, women, and children on the streets of Homs and Hama with an alarming hubris. The Syrian army escorts the observers, making sure to steer them clear of any hotspots. I don't know, but when that report is issued on the 19th, I'd be surprised if it offers more than a perfunctory slap on Assad's wrist. Then what happens?
What particularly irks me is the fact that because of Russia and China, the U.S. and/or NATO is not considering airstrikes like they did in Libya, which had a proven rate of success. I could be wrong but from a strategic standpoint, Syria has a helluva lot more influence in that part of the world than Libya under Qaddafi ever did...and is a much greater menace. Syria essentially rules Lebanon by proxy through Hizbullah..it's agents are reputed to have been responsible for the car bomb assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005, not to mention the fact that Damascus has served as the main base of operations for Hamas, though the latter is said to be distancing itself from the Assad administration while it seeks greater international legitimacy.
While I believe that countries should be allowed to govern themselves without the participation of occupying forces, something has to be said for at least some outside assistance when and where it's due. Nation-building doesn't work--just look at the fiasco that was (and increasingly continues to be) Iraq. But in Syria's case, from an international perspective, relying solely on the dubious word of Arab League observers (however well-intentioned), headed by a Sudanese general with a proven history of human rights abuses, is like the blind leading the blind. And once the Arab League mission ends on the 19th and the observers pack up and go home, what's to stop Mr. Assad from furthering his reign of terror?
Please, people, don't let Syria be the final word on the Arab Spring.
Ciao.
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Dmitri Medvedev---Voice of the Russian People?
Hi everyone!
It seems that President Dmitri Medvedev of Russia has finally decided to listen to the collective voice of his people in calling for democratic reforms. On Thursday, Mr. Medvedev gave his final state of the nation speech as president, calling for the direct election of governors and an end to nepotistic hiring practices within Russia's top corporations. He also announced plans for the creation of a public television station that would be independent of the Kremlin. In essence, Medvedev has flown in the face of Vladimir Putin and seems to be further distancing himself from the prime minister's more totalitarian leanings. While it would appear Medvedev is bending to the demands of the Russian voting public, in his address he completely failed to mention the allegations of fraud in the recent parliamentary elections, the root of the reason thousands of Russians have taken to the streets in protest. In fact, he continued to tow the official Kremlin line that the U.S. and other Western governments were behind the current unrest. Still, however, it is rather striking that Medvedev has chosen to take this approach. While he hasn't publicly broken with Putin--his erstwhile mentor--he does appear to have broken from the standard Kremlin ideology. What remains to be seen is whether the Russian people embrace Medvedev's attempts at reform or choose instead to greet it with justifiable skepticism or outright rejection. Regardless of whether one believes Medvedev is sincere or not, one cannot deny that this is a step in the right direction. What isn't clear is Medvedev's motivation. Kremlin politicking is often as opaque as that of North Korea. To what extent is Putin behind these proposed reforms? Is Putin still the puppet-master manipulating Medvedev's strings? If so, to what end? If Putin and Medvedev are indeed working in agreement, then wouldn't these reforms carry greater clout and/or credibility if they came from Putin himself?
I would like to believe that Medvedev--who came to office in a wave of optimism that he might have somewhat an independent, more Western-oriented voice--is acting from a genuine desire to effect democratic reform in his country. In his address to the newly elected Parliament last week, Medvedev did give credence to the stated desires of the protesters, saying that their voice could no longer be ignored. Still, there is the cynic in me that questions the true motivation of what is going on here. I guess it only remains to be seen. As I write this, another mass demonstration is taking place in Moscow. What will be the outcome? What will be the official Kremlin response? I suppose we'll know more as the day progresses.
Elsewhere in the world, a series of coordinated bomb blasts rocked Damascus yesterday on the eve of the arrival of Arab League observers. At least 44 people were killed with hundreds injured. The Assad government immediately placed responsibility on the shoulders of Al Qaeda, claiming that unrest in other areas of the Middle East have created an opening for Al Qaeda to establish itself within Syria. The truth is, however, that Al Qaeda has had a strong presence in eastern Syria for years, particularly as a launch point for attacks within Iraq. The Daily Telegraph of London reported that one Syrian official went so far as to accuse the United States of secretly forming an allegiance with Al Qaeda as a means of bringing down the Assad government. An utterly preposterous allegation but not necessarily unexpected. After all, there are still conspiracy theorists in the Arab World who honestly believe that the 9/11 attacks were carried out by Mossad. What this kind of theorizing boils down to is mass brainwashing. We see it in North Korea. We see it in the Middle East. We see it here in the United States.
I hope the current wave of protests throughout the Arab World, Russia, and parts of China prove that the collective voice of the people are better than those of their governments. If 2011 is the year of the protester, I hope 2012 sees the the fruition of these efforts. But in order for true reform to take place, the West needs to be prepared to enter into genuine dialogue with whomever the people choose to replace these dictators. Brainwashing is not irreversible, but it cannot take place without outside help.
Ciao.
QUESTION OF THE DAY: "Do you believe the presence of Arab League observers is going to make a difference in Syria's continuing brutal crackdown of the opposition?"
It seems that President Dmitri Medvedev of Russia has finally decided to listen to the collective voice of his people in calling for democratic reforms. On Thursday, Mr. Medvedev gave his final state of the nation speech as president, calling for the direct election of governors and an end to nepotistic hiring practices within Russia's top corporations. He also announced plans for the creation of a public television station that would be independent of the Kremlin. In essence, Medvedev has flown in the face of Vladimir Putin and seems to be further distancing himself from the prime minister's more totalitarian leanings. While it would appear Medvedev is bending to the demands of the Russian voting public, in his address he completely failed to mention the allegations of fraud in the recent parliamentary elections, the root of the reason thousands of Russians have taken to the streets in protest. In fact, he continued to tow the official Kremlin line that the U.S. and other Western governments were behind the current unrest. Still, however, it is rather striking that Medvedev has chosen to take this approach. While he hasn't publicly broken with Putin--his erstwhile mentor--he does appear to have broken from the standard Kremlin ideology. What remains to be seen is whether the Russian people embrace Medvedev's attempts at reform or choose instead to greet it with justifiable skepticism or outright rejection. Regardless of whether one believes Medvedev is sincere or not, one cannot deny that this is a step in the right direction. What isn't clear is Medvedev's motivation. Kremlin politicking is often as opaque as that of North Korea. To what extent is Putin behind these proposed reforms? Is Putin still the puppet-master manipulating Medvedev's strings? If so, to what end? If Putin and Medvedev are indeed working in agreement, then wouldn't these reforms carry greater clout and/or credibility if they came from Putin himself?
I would like to believe that Medvedev--who came to office in a wave of optimism that he might have somewhat an independent, more Western-oriented voice--is acting from a genuine desire to effect democratic reform in his country. In his address to the newly elected Parliament last week, Medvedev did give credence to the stated desires of the protesters, saying that their voice could no longer be ignored. Still, there is the cynic in me that questions the true motivation of what is going on here. I guess it only remains to be seen. As I write this, another mass demonstration is taking place in Moscow. What will be the outcome? What will be the official Kremlin response? I suppose we'll know more as the day progresses.
Elsewhere in the world, a series of coordinated bomb blasts rocked Damascus yesterday on the eve of the arrival of Arab League observers. At least 44 people were killed with hundreds injured. The Assad government immediately placed responsibility on the shoulders of Al Qaeda, claiming that unrest in other areas of the Middle East have created an opening for Al Qaeda to establish itself within Syria. The truth is, however, that Al Qaeda has had a strong presence in eastern Syria for years, particularly as a launch point for attacks within Iraq. The Daily Telegraph of London reported that one Syrian official went so far as to accuse the United States of secretly forming an allegiance with Al Qaeda as a means of bringing down the Assad government. An utterly preposterous allegation but not necessarily unexpected. After all, there are still conspiracy theorists in the Arab World who honestly believe that the 9/11 attacks were carried out by Mossad. What this kind of theorizing boils down to is mass brainwashing. We see it in North Korea. We see it in the Middle East. We see it here in the United States.
I hope the current wave of protests throughout the Arab World, Russia, and parts of China prove that the collective voice of the people are better than those of their governments. If 2011 is the year of the protester, I hope 2012 sees the the fruition of these efforts. But in order for true reform to take place, the West needs to be prepared to enter into genuine dialogue with whomever the people choose to replace these dictators. Brainwashing is not irreversible, but it cannot take place without outside help.
Ciao.
QUESTION OF THE DAY: "Do you believe the presence of Arab League observers is going to make a difference in Syria's continuing brutal crackdown of the opposition?"
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