Fear and Loathing in the Arab World: Syria, Egypt, and Algeria

Hi everyone!

As I expected, the Arab League and the United Nations Security Council came out of their negotiations  yesterday with a severely watered-down version of their resolution against Syria. Whereas the original draft had stipulated Assad must step down and cede power to an acting vice president before new democratic elections were held, the document that came out of yesterday's meeting drops any mention of Assad's ouster. It also doesn't articulate an arms embargo or new sanctions. This is because Russia (quietly backed by China and India) has expressed utter antipathy toward any punishment for the Assad regime's horrendous treatment of its protesters and threatened to veto any resolution that even hinted at regime change. Russia has continued to supply pro-government forces with arms and ammunition and sees no reason why it should stop. The Kremlin claims it is no friend of Bashar al-Assad but does not agree with foreign intervention in domestic affairs. More to the point, Putin knows his own political actions lack legitimacy and, by showing any support for the Syrian protesters, he doesn't want to be seen supporting a movement that calls for the ouster of another dictator.

So thanks to Russia, we have a resolution that doesn't really mean all that much. The Arab League and the Security Council are in agreement that Assad is bad and that the country would (though the resolution doesn't say this) be better off without him. We already know this. This isn't news. So what's next? Assad continues to kill with impunity, the rest of the world (minus Russia, China, and India) collectively shakes its head, and the death toll hits 10,000.

Elsewhere in the Arab World, things aren't all that rosier. Mass protests continued in Cairo yesterday in response to the soccer stadium massacre in Port Said Wednesday night. Eyewitness reports continue to come in which only throw mud in the eye of the Egyptian security apparatus and point toward at least tacit SCAF support for what happened. Apparently, right when the game ended and the El Masry fans charged the pitch, the stadium lights blacked out, providing the rioters temporary cover as they initiated their attack against the unsuspecting al Ahry team and fans. Other reports claim security closed and locked the gates of the stadium when the violence began, in effect trapping those trying to escape inside. Al Ahry's "Ultras" as their ardent supporters are called have been very vocal in their demands that first Mubarak and now the military council step down, having taken a front-and-center role in the protests since their start a year ago.

But--lest this column be too much gloom and doom going into Super Bowl weekend--there was some levity to be had. Iran hosted a conference in Tehran this week where it expressed pride in having been the birthplace of the "Islamic Awakening." Right. Conspicuously absent from this "conference" was any mention of Syria whose protest movement, Iran insists, is the work of foreign meddling and provocation. Try telling that to the thousands of Syrian people and defecting soldiers on the streets of Homs and Hama who are being mowed down by pro-Assad tanks.

I don't know where this is all headed and I'm fearful of the worst. Democratic transition is never easy and it is unrealistic to expect the process to be a success overnight. But the West, having been burned by involvement in two wars in the region over the past ten years, is loath to jump into the fray again. I understand this reluctance but can we in good conscience sit on the sidelines while hundreds of innocent people are killed on a daily basis?

It reminds me of the attitude France took after its eight-year undeclared war with Algeria. Once Algerian independence was granted in 1962, De Gaulle turned his back on Algeria and more-or-less refused to address it or acknowledge the concerns of pro-French Algerians in both Algeria and France. As British historian Martin Evans points out in his thorough and informative but at times tedious new book "Algeria: France's Undeclared War," when considering the French Resistance movement during World War Two and France's fight to preserve its colonial integrity in Indochina, France had been in a state of war for over twenty years by the time the Algerian conflict wrapped up. Consequently, it turned inward and focused on domestic and European affairs, much as the U.S. is doing now.

I suppose only time will tell. And while I understand Egyptian rage and their fear that the military will never step down, killing each other is not the way to effect positive change. Violence begets violence. It's the stuff history is made of.

Ciao.

Hooliganism for Political Means

Hi everyone!

Soccer hooliganism has always existed on the fringes of the world's beautiful game. A little healthy fan rivalry is an inherent part of any sport, sometimes it gets a little out of hand. Sometimes, unfortunately, it gets a lot out of hand. Over the past 30 years a handful of situations have erupted into something worse than good-natured ribbing, the deadliest of which was a stampede in which 78 people died during a soccer match in Guatemala City in 1996.

That dubious distinction was awarded anew last night in Port Said, Egypt. A match between two soccer clubs with an historic and deep-seated rivalry--El Masry of Port Said and Al Ahly of Cairo--spun violently out of control after El Masry came from behind to win the match 3-1. The winning goal was scored in the final seconds of play and then, as if on cue, El Masry's fans stormed the pitch, purportedly armed with knives, rocks, and clubs, and began attacking Al Ahly's team members and fans, chasing them on the field, killing indiscriminately. In the chaos, many others were trampled to death, some were suffocated, and apparently according to some reports, still others were pushed or thrown off the stands.

Where was security when all this was going on? Well, that's the question being asked by many, including the authorities. Video of the riot shows security merely standing around looking helpless, or at worst, passively complicit in the stampede. One of Al Ahly's top players, Mohammed Abu Trika, is quoted in the New York Times as saying: "People here are dying and no one is doing a thing. It's like a war."

Exactly. There's more to this than yet another example of soccer fans behaving badly. What happened last night in Port Said is an example of soccer fans behaving badly out of political motivation. In this part of the world, die-hard soccer fans are called Ultras. The Ultras are actually a fairly organized lot and were among the first to take to the streets when the protests against the Mubarak regime ignited last year. Last night was the eve of the first anniversary of what came to be known as the Battle of the Camels when pro-Mubarak forces attacked peaceful protesters in Tahrir Square with rocks, gasoline bombs, whips, knives, and clubs.

The ruling military council (SCAF) recently agreed (albeit reluctantly) to dismantle parts of the emergency laws that have been in place since Mubarak took over upon the assassination of Anwar Sadat. There's chatter that what took place last night was planned ahead of time and that the police were indeed complicit, hence their lack of involvement in doing anything to stop the massacre. Why? The military council is asserting its control and is using the riot as justification for maintaining its draconian laws as a means of further cracking down on the protesters. It's all rather obvious.

Egypt's acting head of state, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, phoned Al Ahly's satellite TV channel to offer his condolences and to assure all parties involved that the perpetrators of the violence would be dealt with accordingly and that the victims would see justice done. How convenient for him. Now all he and his military cronies have to do is point to what happened last night in Port Said as evidence that without a strong military presence, anarchy will reign.

Who are the real hooligans here?

Ciao.