Hi everyone!
As I expected, the Arab League and the United Nations Security Council came out of their negotiations yesterday with a severely watered-down version of their resolution against Syria. Whereas the original draft had stipulated Assad must step down and cede power to an acting vice president before new democratic elections were held, the document that came out of yesterday's meeting drops any mention of Assad's ouster. It also doesn't articulate an arms embargo or new sanctions. This is because Russia (quietly backed by China and India) has expressed utter antipathy toward any punishment for the Assad regime's horrendous treatment of its protesters and threatened to veto any resolution that even hinted at regime change. Russia has continued to supply pro-government forces with arms and ammunition and sees no reason why it should stop. The Kremlin claims it is no friend of Bashar al-Assad but does not agree with foreign intervention in domestic affairs. More to the point, Putin knows his own political actions lack legitimacy and, by showing any support for the Syrian protesters, he doesn't want to be seen supporting a movement that calls for the ouster of another dictator.
So thanks to Russia, we have a resolution that doesn't really mean all that much. The Arab League and the Security Council are in agreement that Assad is bad and that the country would (though the resolution doesn't say this) be better off without him. We already know this. This isn't news. So what's next? Assad continues to kill with impunity, the rest of the world (minus Russia, China, and India) collectively shakes its head, and the death toll hits 10,000.
Elsewhere in the Arab World, things aren't all that rosier. Mass protests continued in Cairo yesterday in response to the soccer stadium massacre in Port Said Wednesday night. Eyewitness reports continue to come in which only throw mud in the eye of the Egyptian security apparatus and point toward at least tacit SCAF support for what happened. Apparently, right when the game ended and the El Masry fans charged the pitch, the stadium lights blacked out, providing the rioters temporary cover as they initiated their attack against the unsuspecting al Ahry team and fans. Other reports claim security closed and locked the gates of the stadium when the violence began, in effect trapping those trying to escape inside. Al Ahry's "Ultras" as their ardent supporters are called have been very vocal in their demands that first Mubarak and now the military council step down, having taken a front-and-center role in the protests since their start a year ago.
But--lest this column be too much gloom and doom going into Super Bowl weekend--there was some levity to be had. Iran hosted a conference in Tehran this week where it expressed pride in having been the birthplace of the "Islamic Awakening." Right. Conspicuously absent from this "conference" was any mention of Syria whose protest movement, Iran insists, is the work of foreign meddling and provocation. Try telling that to the thousands of Syrian people and defecting soldiers on the streets of Homs and Hama who are being mowed down by pro-Assad tanks.
I don't know where this is all headed and I'm fearful of the worst. Democratic transition is never easy and it is unrealistic to expect the process to be a success overnight. But the West, having been burned by involvement in two wars in the region over the past ten years, is loath to jump into the fray again. I understand this reluctance but can we in good conscience sit on the sidelines while hundreds of innocent people are killed on a daily basis?
It reminds me of the attitude France took after its eight-year undeclared war with Algeria. Once Algerian independence was granted in 1962, De Gaulle turned his back on Algeria and more-or-less refused to address it or acknowledge the concerns of pro-French Algerians in both Algeria and France. As British historian Martin Evans points out in his thorough and informative but at times tedious new book "Algeria: France's Undeclared War," when considering the French Resistance movement during World War Two and France's fight to preserve its colonial integrity in Indochina, France had been in a state of war for over twenty years by the time the Algerian conflict wrapped up. Consequently, it turned inward and focused on domestic and European affairs, much as the U.S. is doing now.
I suppose only time will tell. And while I understand Egyptian rage and their fear that the military will never step down, killing each other is not the way to effect positive change. Violence begets violence. It's the stuff history is made of.
Ciao.
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