Hi everyone!
It should come as no surprise that Vladimir Putin won Russia's presidential election yesterday with some 64.7 percent of the vote, thus avoiding the inconvenience of a run-off. The fact is the opposition candidates never stood a chance, chiefly because at least politically no credible opposition party exists. Sure, you've got Gennady A. Zyuganov who ran once again on the Communist ticket as he has in the past four elections; Vladimir V. Zhirinovsky, leader of the nationalist party; and Sergei M. Mironov of the Just Russia Party; not to mention new candidate and billionaire businessman (and New Jersey Nets owner) Mikhail D. Prokhorov, but no one really took him seriously to begin with. So it stands to reason that Mr. Putin won yet again, thus assuring himself six years at the head of the Kremlin with the possibility of another six beyond that.
But while Putin claims "victory" as everyone expected him to, this should be tempered by the fact that for the first time in eighty-something years, an opposition force is gathering strength at the grass-roots level. Last December's protests drew record crowds as did subsequent protests last month which were all the more impressive given the fact that outside temperatures dipped well below freezing and even this didn't seem to alter the numbers who came out to express their dissatisfaction with Putin and the whole Kremlin regime. Another such protest is scheduled for today.
Of course it remains to be seen whether President (formerly Prime Minister) Putin pays these protesters any heed. Up until now he's chosen ridicule as his primary response and that was before the election. Now, despite the fact that yesterday's election was widely seen as having been rigged in Putin's favor--regardless or resultant of the widespread presence of Kremlin-sponsored election observers--Mr. President may decide he can act as he wishes and crackdown on the protest movement with impunity. It's still very early days yet. In the meantime, it's imperative that foreign governments continue to encourage democratic reform in Russia, though Putin has time and again refused to bow to any outside pressure even if that pressure is done in the name of the greater collective good, as we've seen with Russia's position on Syria.
Taking a long-term outlook, it is important that the opposition movement be allowed to gather strength and to coalesce around leaders who--in six years' time--can actually pose a serious threat to another Putin six-year term. The problem leading into yesterday's election was that the opposition lacked any real cohesive leaders. It is all well and good that anti-Putin bloggers such as Aleksei Navalny are able to rally thousands of middle-class citizens onto the streets of Moscow, yet this isn't going to win elections. A more determined effort has to be made to encourage those living in rural areas--where Putin still derives huge support--to come out in support of the opposition. An organized and credible opposition party needs also to be developed, though Putin will be loath to allow this.
Still anything can happen in six years. What Putin faces now--for the first time ever in his political career--is a vocal opposition. While his election yesterday was a shoo-in, this doesn't mean Putin can run roughshod over his electorate. The Russian people have rediscovered their collective voice and are proving that they aren't afraid to use it. We should encourage them.
Ciao.
Showing posts with label Aleksei Navalny. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aleksei Navalny. Show all posts
Monday, March 5, 2012
Thursday, December 22, 2011
A Russian Spring?
Hi everyone!
So Russia held its first session of its new Parliament yesterday in a bid for a return to normalcy and, no doubt, a hope that with the appearance of business as usual, the wind will have been taken from the protesters' sails. Mr. Putin paid lip service to some of the protesters' demands by saying he was committed to investigating and rooting out corruption, particularly in regards to business and off-shore accounts. He said he wants to make Russia an entrepreneur's dream within the next ten years. At the same time, however, anti-Putin blogger Aleksei Navalny was released after fifteen days' in jail, only to hold a news conference outside his detention center to further denounce the fraudulent elections and rally the Russian people for another demonstration this coming Saturday, Christmas Eve. He said his detention had done nothing to diminish his ardent calls for bringing down Mr. Putin and the current Kremlin hierarchy. In fact, he said he enjoyed listening to radio broadcasts while in prison of the recent 50,000-strong demonstration in Bolotnaya Square. He wrote on his blog, "You cannot imagine how cool it was to listen to the radio broadcast from Bolotnaya." And while the people seem to be united behind Navalny's anti-Kremlin stance, there are signs that there isn't a similar unity among the leaders of the opposition. Boris Nemtsov, head of the Solidarity party, was faced with the embarrassment of having several recorded telephone conversations made public wherein he denounced some of his fellow opposition leaders as "scum" and "half-witted."
While I am dubious of the chances of any sort of Russian Spring coming into fruition in March when Putin is more-or-less guaranteed to win the country's presidency, I do wonder what would hypothetically happen if the collective opposition succeeded in bringing the government down. It is all very well and good for Mr. Navalny to rally his supporters on the streets of Moscow and motivate Russian society to come out in force in Bolotnaya or Red Square, but would the people really be all that better off if the current leaders of the opposition were voted into office? If Mr. Nemtsov and his ilk are already hurling insults at one another, how are they going to behave in the event they are voted into office?
We see this to a certain extent in recently liberated Libya. Now that Qaddafi is gone, the various rebel factions that united to reach this goal have very little in common and have in some cases turned against each other. Egypt isn't dissimilar. The military after Mubarak's oust was seen by-and-large as being an important source of stability while the Egyptian people adjusted to a new, more democratic leadership and society. But now that same source of stability is wreaking devastating havoc on the people because it has become power-hungry and is loathe to give up the power it has enjoyed. Are the Egyptians now back to square one?
Political change is always tough, especially when a country makes the transition from a one-party/one-leader hegemony to a democracy. It's human nature to want to hold onto power when it's been granted. We don't cede control willingly. For the time being, we can only hope and pray that the military will step down in Egypt and that the opposition in Russia, Mr. Navalny aside, overcome petty disputes and childish name-calling in favor of the overarching good. I fear though that this may be too much to ask.
I hope I'm proven wrong.
Ciao.
QUESTION OF THE DAY: "With Parliament back in session in Russia, are the Russian people destined for more of the same or will change really and truly come?"
So Russia held its first session of its new Parliament yesterday in a bid for a return to normalcy and, no doubt, a hope that with the appearance of business as usual, the wind will have been taken from the protesters' sails. Mr. Putin paid lip service to some of the protesters' demands by saying he was committed to investigating and rooting out corruption, particularly in regards to business and off-shore accounts. He said he wants to make Russia an entrepreneur's dream within the next ten years. At the same time, however, anti-Putin blogger Aleksei Navalny was released after fifteen days' in jail, only to hold a news conference outside his detention center to further denounce the fraudulent elections and rally the Russian people for another demonstration this coming Saturday, Christmas Eve. He said his detention had done nothing to diminish his ardent calls for bringing down Mr. Putin and the current Kremlin hierarchy. In fact, he said he enjoyed listening to radio broadcasts while in prison of the recent 50,000-strong demonstration in Bolotnaya Square. He wrote on his blog, "You cannot imagine how cool it was to listen to the radio broadcast from Bolotnaya." And while the people seem to be united behind Navalny's anti-Kremlin stance, there are signs that there isn't a similar unity among the leaders of the opposition. Boris Nemtsov, head of the Solidarity party, was faced with the embarrassment of having several recorded telephone conversations made public wherein he denounced some of his fellow opposition leaders as "scum" and "half-witted."
While I am dubious of the chances of any sort of Russian Spring coming into fruition in March when Putin is more-or-less guaranteed to win the country's presidency, I do wonder what would hypothetically happen if the collective opposition succeeded in bringing the government down. It is all very well and good for Mr. Navalny to rally his supporters on the streets of Moscow and motivate Russian society to come out in force in Bolotnaya or Red Square, but would the people really be all that better off if the current leaders of the opposition were voted into office? If Mr. Nemtsov and his ilk are already hurling insults at one another, how are they going to behave in the event they are voted into office?
We see this to a certain extent in recently liberated Libya. Now that Qaddafi is gone, the various rebel factions that united to reach this goal have very little in common and have in some cases turned against each other. Egypt isn't dissimilar. The military after Mubarak's oust was seen by-and-large as being an important source of stability while the Egyptian people adjusted to a new, more democratic leadership and society. But now that same source of stability is wreaking devastating havoc on the people because it has become power-hungry and is loathe to give up the power it has enjoyed. Are the Egyptians now back to square one?
Political change is always tough, especially when a country makes the transition from a one-party/one-leader hegemony to a democracy. It's human nature to want to hold onto power when it's been granted. We don't cede control willingly. For the time being, we can only hope and pray that the military will step down in Egypt and that the opposition in Russia, Mr. Navalny aside, overcome petty disputes and childish name-calling in favor of the overarching good. I fear though that this may be too much to ask.
I hope I'm proven wrong.
Ciao.
QUESTION OF THE DAY: "With Parliament back in session in Russia, are the Russian people destined for more of the same or will change really and truly come?"
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