President Putin and the Vocal Opposition

Hi everyone!

It should come as no surprise that Vladimir Putin won Russia's presidential election yesterday with some 64.7 percent of the vote, thus avoiding the inconvenience of a run-off. The fact is the opposition candidates never stood a chance, chiefly because at least politically no credible opposition party exists. Sure, you've got Gennady A. Zyuganov who ran once again on the Communist ticket as he has in the past four elections; Vladimir V. Zhirinovsky, leader of the nationalist party; and Sergei M. Mironov of the Just Russia Party; not to mention new candidate and billionaire businessman (and New Jersey Nets owner) Mikhail D. Prokhorov, but no one really took him seriously to begin with. So it stands to reason that Mr. Putin won yet again, thus assuring himself six years at the head of the Kremlin with the possibility of another six beyond that.

But while Putin claims "victory" as everyone expected him to, this should be tempered by the fact that for the first time in eighty-something years, an opposition force is gathering strength at the grass-roots level. Last December's protests drew record crowds as did subsequent protests last month which were all the more impressive given the fact that outside temperatures dipped well below freezing and even this didn't seem to alter the numbers who came out to express their dissatisfaction with Putin and the whole Kremlin regime. Another such protest is scheduled for today.

Of course it remains to be seen whether President (formerly Prime Minister) Putin pays these protesters any heed. Up until now he's chosen ridicule as his primary response and that was before the election. Now, despite the fact that yesterday's election was widely seen as having been rigged in Putin's favor--regardless or resultant of the widespread presence of Kremlin-sponsored election observers--Mr. President may decide he can act as he wishes and crackdown on the protest movement with impunity. It's still very early days yet. In the meantime, it's imperative that foreign governments continue to encourage democratic reform in Russia, though Putin has time and again refused to bow to any outside pressure even if that pressure is done in the name of the greater collective good, as we've seen with Russia's position on Syria.

Taking a long-term outlook, it is important that the opposition movement be allowed to gather strength and to coalesce around leaders who--in six years' time--can actually pose a serious threat to another Putin six-year term. The problem leading into yesterday's election was that the opposition lacked any real cohesive leaders. It is all well and good that anti-Putin bloggers such as Aleksei Navalny are able to rally thousands of middle-class citizens onto the streets of Moscow, yet this isn't going to win elections. A more determined effort has to be made to encourage those living in rural areas--where Putin still derives huge support--to come out in support of the opposition. An organized and credible opposition party needs also to be developed, though Putin will be loath to allow this.

Still anything can happen in six years. What Putin faces now--for the first time ever in his political career--is a vocal opposition. While his election yesterday was a shoo-in, this doesn't mean Putin can run roughshod over his electorate. The Russian people have rediscovered their collective voice and are proving that they aren't afraid to use it. We should encourage them.

Ciao.