Hi everyone!
It's been a while since I've written about current events...and I've missed it. I just couldn't let the ever-evolving situation in Syria continue without saying something about it today, especially in light of yesterday's bombing in Damascus.
So all the pundits are saying how this latest event which killed Bashar's brother-in-law and deputy chief of staff Asef Shawkat; his minister of defense Dawoud Rajha; and former minister of defense and military adviser Hassan Turkmani, is going to be the defining event in the conflict, the point at which the Assad regime and its cronies and sycophants have no choice but to step down. One can only hope that this assessment proves to be true. Unfortunately, however, I can't help but be strongly skeptical.
The effects of the Arab Spring are still being felt. Only time will tell how these fledgling democratically-elected governments are going to pan out over time. Despite the election of Brotherhood-backed Morsi in Egypt, the country still remains locked in a battle of wills between parliament and the military counsel. In Libya last week, the people appeared to reject political Islam in favor of a more socially liberal leader, thus bucking the trend for the region. In Bahrain, protests continue, though they have been somewhat stymied by Saudi Arabian and covert American influence. Iraq continues to find its way and despite a string of recent bombings, the future is looking brighter there than it has for close to a decade. Iran remains a constant irritant and if it is indeed behind yesterday's Israeli-targeted bus bombing in Bulgaria, one can only surmise how Israel will react. The Palestinians continue to struggle for unity and a defined homeland. Israel's unlikely and short-lived Likud-Kadima coalition government collapsed due to conflict over the ultra-Orthodox conscription issue.
And then there is Syria. Kofi Annan continues to push a pipe dream while the country further devolves into civil war. The U.S. and its allies do little but shake their collective fingers and say "Bad, bad Bashar." Of course, Russia remains the sticking point. Putin and his cronies seem hell-bent on maintaining their only position of influence in the Middle East despite the fact that pretty soon Putin's BFF in Damascus may no longer be around. It really is only a matter of time. If I were Putin--and I'm certainly glad I'm not, but let's pretend--if I were Putin, I'd offer Bashar and his immediate entourage asylum in Moscow in exchange for a handover of power to a transitional Friends of Syria-backed government. The jury is out on whether the Syrian rebels can coalesce into a cohesive, unified entity and it is still anyone's guess whether a greater Alawite-Sunni bloodbath can be avoided, but I don't see another feasible alternative. In a perfect world, Bashar and his cronies shouldn't escape prosecution, but if a relative peace can be established by keeping him alive with some dignity intact and granting him comfortable exile in Russia, maybe it's worth a shot.
It's your decision, Mr. Putin. The ball is in your court. In the long run, what have you got to lose except your best friend in the Arab world? You don't really want that, do you?
Ciao.
Showing posts with label Vladimir Putin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Vladimir Putin. Show all posts
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Monday, March 5, 2012
President Putin and the Vocal Opposition
Hi everyone!
It should come as no surprise that Vladimir Putin won Russia's presidential election yesterday with some 64.7 percent of the vote, thus avoiding the inconvenience of a run-off. The fact is the opposition candidates never stood a chance, chiefly because at least politically no credible opposition party exists. Sure, you've got Gennady A. Zyuganov who ran once again on the Communist ticket as he has in the past four elections; Vladimir V. Zhirinovsky, leader of the nationalist party; and Sergei M. Mironov of the Just Russia Party; not to mention new candidate and billionaire businessman (and New Jersey Nets owner) Mikhail D. Prokhorov, but no one really took him seriously to begin with. So it stands to reason that Mr. Putin won yet again, thus assuring himself six years at the head of the Kremlin with the possibility of another six beyond that.
But while Putin claims "victory" as everyone expected him to, this should be tempered by the fact that for the first time in eighty-something years, an opposition force is gathering strength at the grass-roots level. Last December's protests drew record crowds as did subsequent protests last month which were all the more impressive given the fact that outside temperatures dipped well below freezing and even this didn't seem to alter the numbers who came out to express their dissatisfaction with Putin and the whole Kremlin regime. Another such protest is scheduled for today.
Of course it remains to be seen whether President (formerly Prime Minister) Putin pays these protesters any heed. Up until now he's chosen ridicule as his primary response and that was before the election. Now, despite the fact that yesterday's election was widely seen as having been rigged in Putin's favor--regardless or resultant of the widespread presence of Kremlin-sponsored election observers--Mr. President may decide he can act as he wishes and crackdown on the protest movement with impunity. It's still very early days yet. In the meantime, it's imperative that foreign governments continue to encourage democratic reform in Russia, though Putin has time and again refused to bow to any outside pressure even if that pressure is done in the name of the greater collective good, as we've seen with Russia's position on Syria.
Taking a long-term outlook, it is important that the opposition movement be allowed to gather strength and to coalesce around leaders who--in six years' time--can actually pose a serious threat to another Putin six-year term. The problem leading into yesterday's election was that the opposition lacked any real cohesive leaders. It is all well and good that anti-Putin bloggers such as Aleksei Navalny are able to rally thousands of middle-class citizens onto the streets of Moscow, yet this isn't going to win elections. A more determined effort has to be made to encourage those living in rural areas--where Putin still derives huge support--to come out in support of the opposition. An organized and credible opposition party needs also to be developed, though Putin will be loath to allow this.
Still anything can happen in six years. What Putin faces now--for the first time ever in his political career--is a vocal opposition. While his election yesterday was a shoo-in, this doesn't mean Putin can run roughshod over his electorate. The Russian people have rediscovered their collective voice and are proving that they aren't afraid to use it. We should encourage them.
Ciao.
It should come as no surprise that Vladimir Putin won Russia's presidential election yesterday with some 64.7 percent of the vote, thus avoiding the inconvenience of a run-off. The fact is the opposition candidates never stood a chance, chiefly because at least politically no credible opposition party exists. Sure, you've got Gennady A. Zyuganov who ran once again on the Communist ticket as he has in the past four elections; Vladimir V. Zhirinovsky, leader of the nationalist party; and Sergei M. Mironov of the Just Russia Party; not to mention new candidate and billionaire businessman (and New Jersey Nets owner) Mikhail D. Prokhorov, but no one really took him seriously to begin with. So it stands to reason that Mr. Putin won yet again, thus assuring himself six years at the head of the Kremlin with the possibility of another six beyond that.
But while Putin claims "victory" as everyone expected him to, this should be tempered by the fact that for the first time in eighty-something years, an opposition force is gathering strength at the grass-roots level. Last December's protests drew record crowds as did subsequent protests last month which were all the more impressive given the fact that outside temperatures dipped well below freezing and even this didn't seem to alter the numbers who came out to express their dissatisfaction with Putin and the whole Kremlin regime. Another such protest is scheduled for today.
Of course it remains to be seen whether President (formerly Prime Minister) Putin pays these protesters any heed. Up until now he's chosen ridicule as his primary response and that was before the election. Now, despite the fact that yesterday's election was widely seen as having been rigged in Putin's favor--regardless or resultant of the widespread presence of Kremlin-sponsored election observers--Mr. President may decide he can act as he wishes and crackdown on the protest movement with impunity. It's still very early days yet. In the meantime, it's imperative that foreign governments continue to encourage democratic reform in Russia, though Putin has time and again refused to bow to any outside pressure even if that pressure is done in the name of the greater collective good, as we've seen with Russia's position on Syria.
Taking a long-term outlook, it is important that the opposition movement be allowed to gather strength and to coalesce around leaders who--in six years' time--can actually pose a serious threat to another Putin six-year term. The problem leading into yesterday's election was that the opposition lacked any real cohesive leaders. It is all well and good that anti-Putin bloggers such as Aleksei Navalny are able to rally thousands of middle-class citizens onto the streets of Moscow, yet this isn't going to win elections. A more determined effort has to be made to encourage those living in rural areas--where Putin still derives huge support--to come out in support of the opposition. An organized and credible opposition party needs also to be developed, though Putin will be loath to allow this.
Still anything can happen in six years. What Putin faces now--for the first time ever in his political career--is a vocal opposition. While his election yesterday was a shoo-in, this doesn't mean Putin can run roughshod over his electorate. The Russian people have rediscovered their collective voice and are proving that they aren't afraid to use it. We should encourage them.
Ciao.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Putin and Assad: Best Friends Forever
Hi everyone!
So in a bid to prove his legitimacy, Bashar al-Assad held elections of a sort yesterday. The Syrian people voted on a referendum of changes to the government that Mr. Assad believes proves that he is indeed reform-minded. The referendum includes changes that are supposed to shift the monopolistic hold on power currently enjoyed by the ruling Baathist Party. For the first time, presidential term limits are being introduced. According to this referendum, the Syrian president is now limited to two terms at seven years a pop. Lest anyone think Mr. Assad is planning to cede power any time soon, these new term limits don't actually go into effect until 2014 which is when his current term expires. This means that Mr. Assad can potentially remain in power for another two terms. This is reform in name only.
As one might expect, voter turnout was high in Damascus and Aleppo, both of which are bastions of support for Assad. Meanwhile in the embattled city of Homs, the polls--understandably--weren't exactly teeming. Nor were they in other locations around the country despite the images and messages broadcast by Syrian state television that declared the vote was truly a step toward Syrian democracy.
I don't think anyone was fooled. As the votes trickled in, the bombs continued to blast Homs to mere rubble while the so-called Friends of Syria alliance tried to figure out how to bring Mr. Assad to the negotiating table without the support of Russia.
And speaking of Russia...
This morning it was announced that a major assassination plot against Vladimir Putin was foiled. The thing is, this isn't exactly breaking news as the plot was uncovered last month but was only made public today. Apparently it involved the rebel leader of Chechnya and suicide bombers set to disrupt the election process later this week. It isn't just the Syrians who are going to the polls. Vladimir Putin is set to win back the presidency on March 4th. The election, of course, is a mere formality. Of course, whether or not there really was plot against Mr. Putin's life is almost irrelevant. It's all in the timing. Reveal to the Russian public just days before an election that their leader successfully thwarted an assassination attempt, the people are supposed to believe that they need Putin's strength in the face of outside elements that are poised to attack the Russian heartland. Therefore, it's almost unpatriotic not to "vote" for him.
Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin. Syria and Russia: best friends forever. Both are corrupt. Both need the other to 'legitimize' their hold on power. Both see themselves as besieged by foreign aggressors who would dare to disrupt their delusional little fairy tales. Both hold elections (of a sort) that seek to prove they have the support of their people. As farcical as it seems, they're doing a fairly good job staving off the rest of the rational world. Hopefully, it'll only be a matter of time before the cracks really start to show.
Ciao.
So in a bid to prove his legitimacy, Bashar al-Assad held elections of a sort yesterday. The Syrian people voted on a referendum of changes to the government that Mr. Assad believes proves that he is indeed reform-minded. The referendum includes changes that are supposed to shift the monopolistic hold on power currently enjoyed by the ruling Baathist Party. For the first time, presidential term limits are being introduced. According to this referendum, the Syrian president is now limited to two terms at seven years a pop. Lest anyone think Mr. Assad is planning to cede power any time soon, these new term limits don't actually go into effect until 2014 which is when his current term expires. This means that Mr. Assad can potentially remain in power for another two terms. This is reform in name only.
As one might expect, voter turnout was high in Damascus and Aleppo, both of which are bastions of support for Assad. Meanwhile in the embattled city of Homs, the polls--understandably--weren't exactly teeming. Nor were they in other locations around the country despite the images and messages broadcast by Syrian state television that declared the vote was truly a step toward Syrian democracy.
I don't think anyone was fooled. As the votes trickled in, the bombs continued to blast Homs to mere rubble while the so-called Friends of Syria alliance tried to figure out how to bring Mr. Assad to the negotiating table without the support of Russia.
And speaking of Russia...
This morning it was announced that a major assassination plot against Vladimir Putin was foiled. The thing is, this isn't exactly breaking news as the plot was uncovered last month but was only made public today. Apparently it involved the rebel leader of Chechnya and suicide bombers set to disrupt the election process later this week. It isn't just the Syrians who are going to the polls. Vladimir Putin is set to win back the presidency on March 4th. The election, of course, is a mere formality. Of course, whether or not there really was plot against Mr. Putin's life is almost irrelevant. It's all in the timing. Reveal to the Russian public just days before an election that their leader successfully thwarted an assassination attempt, the people are supposed to believe that they need Putin's strength in the face of outside elements that are poised to attack the Russian heartland. Therefore, it's almost unpatriotic not to "vote" for him.
Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin. Syria and Russia: best friends forever. Both are corrupt. Both need the other to 'legitimize' their hold on power. Both see themselves as besieged by foreign aggressors who would dare to disrupt their delusional little fairy tales. Both hold elections (of a sort) that seek to prove they have the support of their people. As farcical as it seems, they're doing a fairly good job staving off the rest of the rational world. Hopefully, it'll only be a matter of time before the cracks really start to show.
Ciao.
Sunday, January 29, 2012
How Do You Solve a Problem Like Syria?
Hi everyone!
So the Arab League finally did it. Deciding that their observer mission to Syria was inadvertently doing more harm than good, it suspended the operation until further review. This means there are no observers on the ground and that the Assad government is now free to unleash its vengeance upon the opposition with impunity.
I suppose this shouldn't come as a surprise. I mean let's face it, the observers were never given the freedom of movement required to really get an accurate view of the situation. When you are under strict escort by troops loyal to the Assad government--the source of the problem to begin with--how much could they actually have expected to see? Not a lot.
Even though the League voted last week to extend the mission for another month, observers were dropping out right and left, thereby further eroding the credibility of the entire endeavor. It is important to keep in mind, however, that the Arab League does have a peace proposal on the table with the United Nations Security Council. In fact, most of the world--with the exception of course of Syria, Russia, China, and Iran--welcome the League's proposal as being the most proactive approach yet to taking the first steps toward ending the violence. The plan calls for Bashar to step down, temporarily ceding power to a vice president while a new government was formed. Of course, Bashar has stated ad nauseum that he has no intention of doing any such thing. He knows he has the support, in particular, of Russia from whom Syria imports tens of millions of dollars of arms each year. Russian Vice President (and soon-to-be President) Vladimir Putin has publicly expressed support for Bashar and has joined him in condemning Western (read U.S.) influence in inciting the Syrian insurgency. This is a similar accusation to that which Putin has made about the recent protests in his own country.
Although I have always been a skeptic of the Arab League observer mission, now that the mission has been suspended--albeit temporarily but I'm not hopeful of a renewal--where does that leave things? In a very bad way indeed. For however long it takes the League to decide whether to continue the mission or not, Assad has a perfect window of opportunity to inflict maximum damage upon the opposition movement. You'd be a fool to believe otherwise.
What gets me is that no one outside the Arab World really seems to care all that much. The Obama administration repeatedly claims to be "closely monitoring" events in Syria but what does that really mean? I don't advocate sending American troops to Syria. This would give Iran an opportunity to further decry American hegemony in the region and who's to say that Iran wouldn't use this as a catalyst to move the Republican Guard into Syria under the guise of protecting its Syrian ally? We don't want another Iraq. It's unlikely this would happen anyway given the fact that Obama is in the process of initiating a "reset" in its relations with Russia and is unlikely to do anything that would provoke further Russian consternation. It seems where the U.S. is concerned, democracy is great as long as it falls in line with our own political sensibilities, otherwise democracy just gets in the way of promoting our master agenda...though I'm not sure anyone--including our leaders in Washington--really knows what that is anymore.
There has been mention in the U.N. Security Council of enacting a no-fly zone over parts of Syria. It was an effective tool in bringing down Qaddafi in Libya and to a lesser extent Saddam in Iraq. But there are enough dissenting opinions in the Security Council about this that it's unlikely a no-fly zone is realistically within the equation.
So what to do? We need to give full support to the Arab League peace proposal and perhaps offer a sort of amnesty to Bashar and his allies in the Syrian government as an incentive for stepping down, not unlike that which was offered to President Saleh of Yemen--who, incidentally, is now in New York for medical treatment. Beyond this, our hands are tied. The situation on the ground is dire but, in Syria, military intervention could truly ignite a much greater regional conflagration than we've seen to this point, a conflagration that might include Iranian missile strikes on Israel, the threatened closing of the Strait of Hormuz...and much much worse.
Not good. Not good at all.
Ciao.
So the Arab League finally did it. Deciding that their observer mission to Syria was inadvertently doing more harm than good, it suspended the operation until further review. This means there are no observers on the ground and that the Assad government is now free to unleash its vengeance upon the opposition with impunity.
I suppose this shouldn't come as a surprise. I mean let's face it, the observers were never given the freedom of movement required to really get an accurate view of the situation. When you are under strict escort by troops loyal to the Assad government--the source of the problem to begin with--how much could they actually have expected to see? Not a lot.
Even though the League voted last week to extend the mission for another month, observers were dropping out right and left, thereby further eroding the credibility of the entire endeavor. It is important to keep in mind, however, that the Arab League does have a peace proposal on the table with the United Nations Security Council. In fact, most of the world--with the exception of course of Syria, Russia, China, and Iran--welcome the League's proposal as being the most proactive approach yet to taking the first steps toward ending the violence. The plan calls for Bashar to step down, temporarily ceding power to a vice president while a new government was formed. Of course, Bashar has stated ad nauseum that he has no intention of doing any such thing. He knows he has the support, in particular, of Russia from whom Syria imports tens of millions of dollars of arms each year. Russian Vice President (and soon-to-be President) Vladimir Putin has publicly expressed support for Bashar and has joined him in condemning Western (read U.S.) influence in inciting the Syrian insurgency. This is a similar accusation to that which Putin has made about the recent protests in his own country.
Although I have always been a skeptic of the Arab League observer mission, now that the mission has been suspended--albeit temporarily but I'm not hopeful of a renewal--where does that leave things? In a very bad way indeed. For however long it takes the League to decide whether to continue the mission or not, Assad has a perfect window of opportunity to inflict maximum damage upon the opposition movement. You'd be a fool to believe otherwise.
What gets me is that no one outside the Arab World really seems to care all that much. The Obama administration repeatedly claims to be "closely monitoring" events in Syria but what does that really mean? I don't advocate sending American troops to Syria. This would give Iran an opportunity to further decry American hegemony in the region and who's to say that Iran wouldn't use this as a catalyst to move the Republican Guard into Syria under the guise of protecting its Syrian ally? We don't want another Iraq. It's unlikely this would happen anyway given the fact that Obama is in the process of initiating a "reset" in its relations with Russia and is unlikely to do anything that would provoke further Russian consternation. It seems where the U.S. is concerned, democracy is great as long as it falls in line with our own political sensibilities, otherwise democracy just gets in the way of promoting our master agenda...though I'm not sure anyone--including our leaders in Washington--really knows what that is anymore.
There has been mention in the U.N. Security Council of enacting a no-fly zone over parts of Syria. It was an effective tool in bringing down Qaddafi in Libya and to a lesser extent Saddam in Iraq. But there are enough dissenting opinions in the Security Council about this that it's unlikely a no-fly zone is realistically within the equation.
So what to do? We need to give full support to the Arab League peace proposal and perhaps offer a sort of amnesty to Bashar and his allies in the Syrian government as an incentive for stepping down, not unlike that which was offered to President Saleh of Yemen--who, incidentally, is now in New York for medical treatment. Beyond this, our hands are tied. The situation on the ground is dire but, in Syria, military intervention could truly ignite a much greater regional conflagration than we've seen to this point, a conflagration that might include Iranian missile strikes on Israel, the threatened closing of the Strait of Hormuz...and much much worse.
Not good. Not good at all.
Ciao.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Vladimir Putin and those pesky protestors wearing condoms on their lapels...
Hello again everyone! Happy Friday!
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin conducted his annual television talk-a-thon yesterday in Moscow, spending over five hours sharing his views on the recent allegations of election fraud, his waning popularity, and the 50,000 or so who converged last Saturday near Red Square to voice their displeasure about all of the above. Based on transcripts of his question-and-answer session, it's clear that Putin is utterly out of touch--or, more to the point, doesn't give a damn--about anything beyond holding onto power. He dismissed the protestors as being paid lackeys of the opposition and made fun of the white ribbons they wore, claiming the ribbons looked like condoms, a remark that sent the opposition blogosphere into overdrive.
Putin went on to reiterate claims he made earlier in the week, saying that the opposition movement was fueled and funded by the U.S. government and that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was personally responsible for inciting the unrest. I don't know about you, but this is beginning to sound not dissimilar to the ridiculous accusations of a certain recently dead and dethroned Libyan dictator who said his country's protests were spurred by Western drug dealers and foreign agents.
Has Putin not been following the news? Does he not realize momentum is on the side of the protestors? He did make some concessions, paying lip service to charges of ballot-stuffing by saying he'd have Web cameras installed in 90,000 polling places across the country during the upcoming presidential elections in March. It is doubtful however that this is going to stem the tide flowing against him. Another protest has been called for December 24th that could very well exceed the tens of thousands who turned out last Saturday.
Of course Putin has demonstrated time and again a certain bizarre predilection for advertising his masculine hubris. He seems to relish the photo-op that allows him to pose bare-chested in all manner of manly-man activities, including hunting, fishing, and wrestling. His latest involved a mixed martial arts competition at which he was roundly booed when he took the ring. Putin denies this as he denies everything, claiming the jeers were actually directed at the loser of the previous bout. Whatever.
While even the Western media has said Putin's re-election in March as President (in a much-derided job swap with current President Dmitri Medvedev) is a foregone conclusion, I'm going to take a different stance and say all bets are off. A lot can happen in three months, as we've lately seen in the Middle East. I'm dubious of opposition candidate and New York Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov's chances against Putin (nor am I convinced that he isn't part of the Kremlin-sponsored opposition) but I wouldn't rule out People Power just yet. No dictator is an island...not even you, Mr. Putin.
Do svidaniya.
QUESTION OF THE DAY: "Do you believe Russia is fated for a similar uprising to what we've witnessed in the Middle East?"
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin conducted his annual television talk-a-thon yesterday in Moscow, spending over five hours sharing his views on the recent allegations of election fraud, his waning popularity, and the 50,000 or so who converged last Saturday near Red Square to voice their displeasure about all of the above. Based on transcripts of his question-and-answer session, it's clear that Putin is utterly out of touch--or, more to the point, doesn't give a damn--about anything beyond holding onto power. He dismissed the protestors as being paid lackeys of the opposition and made fun of the white ribbons they wore, claiming the ribbons looked like condoms, a remark that sent the opposition blogosphere into overdrive.
Putin went on to reiterate claims he made earlier in the week, saying that the opposition movement was fueled and funded by the U.S. government and that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was personally responsible for inciting the unrest. I don't know about you, but this is beginning to sound not dissimilar to the ridiculous accusations of a certain recently dead and dethroned Libyan dictator who said his country's protests were spurred by Western drug dealers and foreign agents.
Has Putin not been following the news? Does he not realize momentum is on the side of the protestors? He did make some concessions, paying lip service to charges of ballot-stuffing by saying he'd have Web cameras installed in 90,000 polling places across the country during the upcoming presidential elections in March. It is doubtful however that this is going to stem the tide flowing against him. Another protest has been called for December 24th that could very well exceed the tens of thousands who turned out last Saturday.
Of course Putin has demonstrated time and again a certain bizarre predilection for advertising his masculine hubris. He seems to relish the photo-op that allows him to pose bare-chested in all manner of manly-man activities, including hunting, fishing, and wrestling. His latest involved a mixed martial arts competition at which he was roundly booed when he took the ring. Putin denies this as he denies everything, claiming the jeers were actually directed at the loser of the previous bout. Whatever.
While even the Western media has said Putin's re-election in March as President (in a much-derided job swap with current President Dmitri Medvedev) is a foregone conclusion, I'm going to take a different stance and say all bets are off. A lot can happen in three months, as we've lately seen in the Middle East. I'm dubious of opposition candidate and New York Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov's chances against Putin (nor am I convinced that he isn't part of the Kremlin-sponsored opposition) but I wouldn't rule out People Power just yet. No dictator is an island...not even you, Mr. Putin.
Do svidaniya.
QUESTION OF THE DAY: "Do you believe Russia is fated for a similar uprising to what we've witnessed in the Middle East?"
Friday, December 9, 2011
The Russian Elections
Hi everyone! I'm coming to you today from my family's weekend getaway house in Galena, Illinois, about a 3-hour drive northwest of Chicago, right on the Illinois/Iowa/Wisconsin tri-state area. It's a beautiful Frank Lloyd Wright-inspired house situated on sixteen acres of secluded woodland with an eagle's eye view of the surrounding countryside. It is indeed the perfect country retreat and I am very happy to be out here for the weekend, getting in some much-needed R&R.
What's on my mind today? I've been following the news out of Russia. It seems that Vladimir Putin is in trouble of losing his grip on his decade-long control of Kremlin politics. This week's elections, which were essentially intended to cement support for Putin's United Russia party in advance of his election to become president again in March, proved (perhaps unsurprisingly) to be a rather corrupt affair, with allegations (and photographic proof) of ballot box stuffing and the like on behalf of Putin. The interesting thing, however, is that despite these allegations, United Russia still faired rather poorly with only some 50% of all votes cast in favor of the party. Speculation is that without these criminal tactics, United Russia would have done even worse. So...what does this say about Putin's chances of becoming President again in 2012? I'm thinking at this point it's a shoo-in, especially as Putin's personal approval ratings are still quite high despite the middling performance of his party at the polls. But, with a massive protest scheduled to hit Red Square on Saturday, and fearful whisperings of an Arab Spring-type revolution in the making, I'd think Putin and his Kremlin cronies might be a little less smug about their chances. Putin's accusation that Hilary Clinton was at the forefront of stirring up the anti-United Russia pot just smacks of desperation...well, maybe not desperation exactly but it doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
I'm curious to know what others think, especially those of you who are reading this blog in Russia. I know there's at least a few of you. I'm curious to know your in-the-trenches perspective. Are any of you planning to be at the protest tomorrow? If so, post a comment. Let me know what you're thinking. Let's get a discussion going. I have my own opinion about democracy in Russia--not unlike that alluded to in my post the other day about the democracy movement in the Middle East--but I'm curious to know your thoughts. Can a country as vast and diverse as Russia in terms of landscape and ethnicity with no real historical experience with democracy be expected to function as a Western-style democracy...or does it need a strong man-type (like Putin) to keep the country together? Share your opinions.
Oh...and my holiday party last night was great, thanks! Leslie, Shannon, Heather, Tom, Melissa, Craig, Mom and Dad and the family---thanks for coming over! The shrimp skewers came out okay after all and there was plenty of food and drink to go around! Cheers!
Ciao.
QUESTION OF THE DAY: "What are your thoughts and opinions about the elections in Russia? Should Putin be allowed to run as President in 2012? Why or why not?"
What's on my mind today? I've been following the news out of Russia. It seems that Vladimir Putin is in trouble of losing his grip on his decade-long control of Kremlin politics. This week's elections, which were essentially intended to cement support for Putin's United Russia party in advance of his election to become president again in March, proved (perhaps unsurprisingly) to be a rather corrupt affair, with allegations (and photographic proof) of ballot box stuffing and the like on behalf of Putin. The interesting thing, however, is that despite these allegations, United Russia still faired rather poorly with only some 50% of all votes cast in favor of the party. Speculation is that without these criminal tactics, United Russia would have done even worse. So...what does this say about Putin's chances of becoming President again in 2012? I'm thinking at this point it's a shoo-in, especially as Putin's personal approval ratings are still quite high despite the middling performance of his party at the polls. But, with a massive protest scheduled to hit Red Square on Saturday, and fearful whisperings of an Arab Spring-type revolution in the making, I'd think Putin and his Kremlin cronies might be a little less smug about their chances. Putin's accusation that Hilary Clinton was at the forefront of stirring up the anti-United Russia pot just smacks of desperation...well, maybe not desperation exactly but it doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
I'm curious to know what others think, especially those of you who are reading this blog in Russia. I know there's at least a few of you. I'm curious to know your in-the-trenches perspective. Are any of you planning to be at the protest tomorrow? If so, post a comment. Let me know what you're thinking. Let's get a discussion going. I have my own opinion about democracy in Russia--not unlike that alluded to in my post the other day about the democracy movement in the Middle East--but I'm curious to know your thoughts. Can a country as vast and diverse as Russia in terms of landscape and ethnicity with no real historical experience with democracy be expected to function as a Western-style democracy...or does it need a strong man-type (like Putin) to keep the country together? Share your opinions.
Oh...and my holiday party last night was great, thanks! Leslie, Shannon, Heather, Tom, Melissa, Craig, Mom and Dad and the family---thanks for coming over! The shrimp skewers came out okay after all and there was plenty of food and drink to go around! Cheers!
Ciao.
QUESTION OF THE DAY: "What are your thoughts and opinions about the elections in Russia? Should Putin be allowed to run as President in 2012? Why or why not?"
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