The Russian Revolution Redux

Merry Christmas everyone!

I'm writing this on the tail-end of a packed Christmas Day out here in the mountains of Colorado. I overate and am ready to call it a night but I did want to comment on this weekend's news coming out of Russia. Yesterday's second rally to protest the recent Russian elections sounds to have been a tremendous success with estimates of anywhere from 30,000 to 120,000 people filling the streets and squares of Moscow.

As reported in today's New York Times, what set this rally apart from the first was the presence on the platform of high-level Kremlin officials--including former Finance Minister Alexsei Kudrin--giving measured support for the gathered crowd. Russian business oligarch and newly minted opposition candidate Mikhail D. Prokhorov was also in attendance, although he didn't give a speech, choosing instead to show his support through photo ops and meet-and-greets at the street level. Without a doubt, however, the man it appeared the crowd was there to see was dissident blogger Aleksei Navalny. Mr. Navalny, who was recently released from a fifteen-day detention and who has been tireless in his very public criticism of Mr. Putin, did not disappoint. In a fiery and impassioned speech, Mr. Navalny said, "I can see that there are enough people here to seize the Kremlin. We are a peaceful force now and will not do it now. But if these crooks and thieves try to go on cheating us, if they continue telling lies and stealing from us, we will take what belongs to us with our own hands."

Whoa! Is Mr. Navalny hinting at the possibility of a more violent attempt at overthrowing the government if the Kremlin continues on its current course of generally ignoring or ridiculing the protesters' demands? Or is he merely using dramatic rhetoric to whip up additional support from the protest movement? Mr. Navalny's motivation isn't exactly clear. And herein lies the crux of the issue: while it is all well and good for the Russian people to brave the notorious Arctic winter cold in a massive show of support for ending Putin's political aspirations once and for all, it becomes quite a different matter if they are indeed successful in bringing down the government but are left with a political vacuum and no individual or party in a position that can actually enact much-desired reform. As I've said repeatedly over the past several weeks, the situation facing Russia right now is not dissimilar to that currently facing Egypt or Yemen or Libya, for that matter. Okay...so you successfully forced out a dictator...what then do you have lined up in place of him?

This is precisely what appears to be lacking in any discussion about a Putin-free political landscape. The current opposition is dubious at best. Prokhorov is not particularly well-known and some skeptics believe that he is little more than a tool of the Kremlin, a puppet disguised as opposition but whose function in truth is to only give the impression that he represents change while dividing the genuine opposition and thereby assuring Putin's win in March's presidential election. Outside of Prokhorov, who else is there? Mr. Navalny is an intriguing possibility but with no real political experience, what are his chances of winning political office? I suppose there is always Dmitri Medvedev who appeared this week to give measured support of the protest movement while holding to his line that foreign governments and agitators were behind the unrest. The question remains: how married is Medvedev to Putin these days? Is there indeed a break between the two? We just don't know. And, speaking of which, where was Putin all weekend? He seems to be lying low. Even former president Mikhail Gorbachev lent his support to the protesters, saying it's time Putin cedes control now as a means of preserving his positive legacy in the future.

If we can be certain of nothing else, we can be certain of this: unless Putin and the powers-that-be in the Kremlin are miraculously lobotomized between now and next March, we can expect more of the same: both from the current government and from the Russian street. If Mr. Navalny's speech is any indication, the Russian people are losing patience. If peaceful protests don't bring them what they want, who's to say that more forceful tactics won't be employed in the near future?

Is this the second coming of the Russian Revolution?

Ciao.

Vladimir Putin and those pesky protestors wearing condoms on their lapels...

Hello again everyone! Happy Friday!

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin conducted his annual television talk-a-thon yesterday in Moscow, spending over five hours sharing his views on the recent allegations of election fraud, his waning popularity, and the 50,000 or so who converged last Saturday near Red Square to voice their displeasure about all of the above. Based on transcripts of his question-and-answer session, it's clear that Putin is utterly out of touch--or, more to the point, doesn't give a damn--about anything beyond holding onto power. He dismissed the protestors as being paid lackeys of the opposition and made fun of the white ribbons they wore, claiming the ribbons looked like condoms, a remark that sent the opposition blogosphere into overdrive.

Putin went on to reiterate claims he made earlier in the week, saying that the opposition movement was fueled and funded by the U.S. government and that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was personally responsible for inciting the unrest. I don't know about you, but this is beginning to sound not dissimilar to the ridiculous accusations of a certain recently dead and dethroned Libyan dictator who said his country's protests were spurred by Western drug dealers and foreign agents.

Has Putin not been following the news? Does he not realize momentum is on the side of the protestors? He did make some concessions, paying lip service to charges of ballot-stuffing by saying he'd have Web cameras installed in 90,000 polling places across the country during the upcoming presidential elections in March. It is doubtful however that this is going to stem the tide flowing against him. Another protest has been called for December 24th that could very well exceed the tens of thousands who turned out last Saturday.

Of course Putin has demonstrated time and again a certain bizarre predilection for advertising his masculine hubris. He seems to relish the photo-op that allows him to pose bare-chested in all manner of manly-man activities, including hunting, fishing, and wrestling. His latest involved a mixed martial arts competition at which he was roundly booed when he took the ring. Putin denies this as he denies everything, claiming the jeers were actually directed at the loser of the previous bout. Whatever.

While even the Western media has said Putin's re-election in March as President (in a much-derided job swap with current President Dmitri Medvedev) is a foregone conclusion, I'm going to take a different stance and say all bets are off. A lot can happen in three months, as we've lately seen in the Middle East. I'm dubious of opposition candidate and New York Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov's chances against Putin (nor am I convinced that he isn't part of the Kremlin-sponsored opposition) but I wouldn't rule out People Power just yet. No dictator is an island...not even you, Mr. Putin.

Do svidaniya.

QUESTION OF THE DAY: "Do you believe Russia is fated for a similar uprising to what we've witnessed in the Middle East?"