Hi everyone!
It's been a while since I've written about current events...and I've missed it. I just couldn't let the ever-evolving situation in Syria continue without saying something about it today, especially in light of yesterday's bombing in Damascus.
So all the pundits are saying how this latest event which killed Bashar's brother-in-law and deputy chief of staff Asef Shawkat; his minister of defense Dawoud Rajha; and former minister of defense and military adviser Hassan Turkmani, is going to be the defining event in the conflict, the point at which the Assad regime and its cronies and sycophants have no choice but to step down. One can only hope that this assessment proves to be true. Unfortunately, however, I can't help but be strongly skeptical.
The effects of the Arab Spring are still being felt. Only time will tell how these fledgling democratically-elected governments are going to pan out over time. Despite the election of Brotherhood-backed Morsi in Egypt, the country still remains locked in a battle of wills between parliament and the military counsel. In Libya last week, the people appeared to reject political Islam in favor of a more socially liberal leader, thus bucking the trend for the region. In Bahrain, protests continue, though they have been somewhat stymied by Saudi Arabian and covert American influence. Iraq continues to find its way and despite a string of recent bombings, the future is looking brighter there than it has for close to a decade. Iran remains a constant irritant and if it is indeed behind yesterday's Israeli-targeted bus bombing in Bulgaria, one can only surmise how Israel will react. The Palestinians continue to struggle for unity and a defined homeland. Israel's unlikely and short-lived Likud-Kadima coalition government collapsed due to conflict over the ultra-Orthodox conscription issue.
And then there is Syria. Kofi Annan continues to push a pipe dream while the country further devolves into civil war. The U.S. and its allies do little but shake their collective fingers and say "Bad, bad Bashar." Of course, Russia remains the sticking point. Putin and his cronies seem hell-bent on maintaining their only position of influence in the Middle East despite the fact that pretty soon Putin's BFF in Damascus may no longer be around. It really is only a matter of time. If I were Putin--and I'm certainly glad I'm not, but let's pretend--if I were Putin, I'd offer Bashar and his immediate entourage asylum in Moscow in exchange for a handover of power to a transitional Friends of Syria-backed government. The jury is out on whether the Syrian rebels can coalesce into a cohesive, unified entity and it is still anyone's guess whether a greater Alawite-Sunni bloodbath can be avoided, but I don't see another feasible alternative. In a perfect world, Bashar and his cronies shouldn't escape prosecution, but if a relative peace can be established by keeping him alive with some dignity intact and granting him comfortable exile in Russia, maybe it's worth a shot.
It's your decision, Mr. Putin. The ball is in your court. In the long run, what have you got to lose except your best friend in the Arab world? You don't really want that, do you?
Ciao.
Showing posts with label Alawites. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alawites. Show all posts
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Why the Syrian Opposition Needs a United Front
Hi everyone!
The more I think about the situation in Syria, the angrier it makes me feel. I realize there is no perfect solution for halting the violence and that the overthrow of the Assad regime does not guarantee a peaceful or orderly transition to democracy. The main problem the Syrian opposition has--as I've said before--is that there isn't a central leadership. The Free Syrian Army, mainly comprised of Syrian army deserters, is a loosely confederated network of freestanding militias. Whatever binds them together is under threat of dissolution. According to a recent report on CNN International's website, three rival rebel leaders are claiming that they are the driving force behind the rebellion, none of whom seem interested in sharing credit.
Major Mahar Naimi, spokesman for the newly created Higher Military Council, told CNN over the weekend that his organization, under the command of General Mustafa Sheikh, is the leading force driving change in Syria. In a case of tit-for-tat, Colonel Riad al-Assad long known to be one of the "commanders" of the Free Syrian Army, dismissed Major Naimi's charge by saying: "This man represents himself. He has nothing to do with the Free Syrian Army...those people are representing themselves and do not represent the revolution and the Free Syrian Army."
Into the mix we need to add Lieutenant Bassim Khaled, another defector from the Syrian army, who claims that neither the Free Syrian Army nor the Higher Military Council are the ones in command of opposition forces--at least not in Homs, the city currently being pummeled into the ground by Assad's pro-government troops--but rather a militia calling itself the Al Farroukh Battalion.
Who to to believe? Or are all claimants telling the truth? It doesn't really matter. The point here is that it is all well and good for each of these organizations to be fighting the good fight against Assad's forces. These are brave and patriotic men leading the charge in defense of a better and ostensibly freer Syria. I commend them and the men and women who fight under their leadership wherever they may be. The problem though is that despite these pockets of resistance, Assad still commands an army of at least 200,000 and, unless Russian and Chinese leaders are lobotomized, overthrown, or come to recognize their grievous error in vetoing the Security Council resolution, Assad will continue to benefit from Russian arms sales that will provide his army with vastly superior weaponry with which to quell the rebellion.
But further to that, the question remains: Without a united non-sectarian opposition front headed by qualified politicians and experienced diplomats, if and when Assad falls, what happens then? In the wake of the failure of the resolution, the West and its allies in the Arab World should work together to not only arm the rebels but actively work towards building an opposition leadership that can credibly work to building a free and democratic Syria when the fighting comes to an end. Otherwise, I fear more chaos and Sunni vs. Alawite sectarian warfare.
Ciao.
The more I think about the situation in Syria, the angrier it makes me feel. I realize there is no perfect solution for halting the violence and that the overthrow of the Assad regime does not guarantee a peaceful or orderly transition to democracy. The main problem the Syrian opposition has--as I've said before--is that there isn't a central leadership. The Free Syrian Army, mainly comprised of Syrian army deserters, is a loosely confederated network of freestanding militias. Whatever binds them together is under threat of dissolution. According to a recent report on CNN International's website, three rival rebel leaders are claiming that they are the driving force behind the rebellion, none of whom seem interested in sharing credit.
Major Mahar Naimi, spokesman for the newly created Higher Military Council, told CNN over the weekend that his organization, under the command of General Mustafa Sheikh, is the leading force driving change in Syria. In a case of tit-for-tat, Colonel Riad al-Assad long known to be one of the "commanders" of the Free Syrian Army, dismissed Major Naimi's charge by saying: "This man represents himself. He has nothing to do with the Free Syrian Army...those people are representing themselves and do not represent the revolution and the Free Syrian Army."
Into the mix we need to add Lieutenant Bassim Khaled, another defector from the Syrian army, who claims that neither the Free Syrian Army nor the Higher Military Council are the ones in command of opposition forces--at least not in Homs, the city currently being pummeled into the ground by Assad's pro-government troops--but rather a militia calling itself the Al Farroukh Battalion.
Who to to believe? Or are all claimants telling the truth? It doesn't really matter. The point here is that it is all well and good for each of these organizations to be fighting the good fight against Assad's forces. These are brave and patriotic men leading the charge in defense of a better and ostensibly freer Syria. I commend them and the men and women who fight under their leadership wherever they may be. The problem though is that despite these pockets of resistance, Assad still commands an army of at least 200,000 and, unless Russian and Chinese leaders are lobotomized, overthrown, or come to recognize their grievous error in vetoing the Security Council resolution, Assad will continue to benefit from Russian arms sales that will provide his army with vastly superior weaponry with which to quell the rebellion.
But further to that, the question remains: Without a united non-sectarian opposition front headed by qualified politicians and experienced diplomats, if and when Assad falls, what happens then? In the wake of the failure of the resolution, the West and its allies in the Arab World should work together to not only arm the rebels but actively work towards building an opposition leadership that can credibly work to building a free and democratic Syria when the fighting comes to an end. Otherwise, I fear more chaos and Sunni vs. Alawite sectarian warfare.
Ciao.
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